As retailers spread "Black Friday" deals across entire months and online shopping eliminates scarcity, the once-special shopping event is becoming just another marketing campaign.
Opinion: After analyzing pricing data, consumer behavior shifts, and retail strategies over the past decade, a clear picture emerges: Black Friday as we knew it—a singular, can't-miss day of genuine doorbuster deals—no longer exists. What remains is largely theater, designed to create urgency where little actually exists.
The most fundamental issue undermining Black Friday's relevance is simple oversaturation. When retailers extend "Black Friday" deals for three weeks before and two weeks after the actual day, the event loses all meaning.
2005-2010: Black Friday occurred on one day—the Friday after Thanksgiving. Some retailers opened at midnight, others at 5 AM, but deals were concentrated in a 24-hour window.
2010-2015: Retailers began opening Thanksgiving evening. Black Friday effectively became a two-day event spanning Thursday evening through Friday.
2015-2020: "Black Friday Week" emerged, with deals starting the Sunday before Thanksgiving and running through Cyber Monday.
2020-2025: "Black November" became standard. Major retailers now launch Black Friday deals as early as November 1st, running promotions continuously for four weeks.
Economic Reality: When Walmart offers the same 55" TV for $298 on November 8th, November 15th, November 22nd, AND November 29th, what makes Black Friday itself special? Answer: Nothing. The scarcity and urgency that once defined Black Friday have been deliberately engineered out of the experience to smooth demand curves and reduce operational strain.
Amazon has fundamentally disrupted the Black Friday model by offering competitive pricing 365 days a year, eliminating the need to wait for a single shopping event.
Consider these examples from 2024 price tracking data:
| Product | Black Friday Price | Lowest 2024 Price (Non-BF) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| AirPods Pro (2nd Gen) | $199 | $189 (Prime Day) | Prime Day was cheaper |
| Samsung 65" QLED TV | $898 | $897 (September) | Essentially identical |
| Instant Pot Duo | $49 | $49 (Multiple times) | Same price 6+ times annually |
| Nintendo Switch OLED | $299 | $299 (Regular price) | No discount at all |
| Apple iPad (Base) | $299 | $279 (Education pricing) | Better deals available always |
The pattern is clear: For many products, Black Friday prices are either matched or beaten by sales at other times of the year. Prime Day (July), back-to-school sales (August), and post-Christmas clearances often offer equal or better deals.
Amazon's pricing strategy has trained consumers to expect constant deals:
When deals are available every day, waiting for Black Friday makes little sense unless you're certain a product will reach its annual low—and increasingly, that certainty doesn't exist.
Perhaps the most damning evidence against Black Friday's relevance is the prevalence of misleading pricing that regulatory agencies have repeatedly exposed.
The Price Inflation Strategy:
Real Example: In 2023, consumer advocates tracked a popular Black Friday "doorbuster" laptop advertised as "Was $899, Now $399—Save $500!" Price history revealed the laptop had never sold for more than $499 all year. The "regular price" of $899 existed only in marketing materials, never on the actual sales floor. This isn't an anomaly—it's standard practice.
Many Black Friday deals reference a "Compare At" or "Original Price" that bears no relationship to what consumers actually pay in the market:
Traditional doorbusters—legitimate loss-leaders to drive traffic—have evolved into something more cynical:
Old Model (Pre-2010): Retailer advertises name-brand TV at $300 (cost to retailer: $320). Limited to 20 per store. Actual loss-leader designed to drive foot traffic.
New Model (2015-Present): Retailer advertises "50" 4K TV - $299!" but uses off-brand manufacturer, older panel technology, and inferior specifications. Retailer's cost: $180. Marketed as doorbuster but is actually high-margin.
Consumers think they're getting a name-brand TV deal but end up with a product that would never sell at full price—because it's not worth full price.
Scarcity once drove Black Friday's urgency: limited stock meant you had to show up early or miss out. That scarcity has largely been manufactured away.
With online shopping dominating Black Friday (now representing 60%+ of sales), physical scarcity matters less:
Many items advertised as limited-quantity doorbusters are available in substantial numbers:
Example: Best Buy advertises "Limited Quantities!" on a laptop. What consumers don't know: Best Buy has 50,000 units nationally. At an average of 1,000 stores, that's 50 per store—hardly scarce. And if they sell out Friday morning, new stock arrives Tuesday.
True scarcity still exists for genuine limited-release items (new game consoles, certain collectibles), but for most Black Friday merchandise, "limited" is marketing speak, not reality.
Younger consumers approach Black Friday with skepticism that older generations often lack, fundamentally changing the event's trajectory.
Millennials and Gen Z grew up with price comparison tools, browser extensions that track price history, and social media groups that expose fake deals. They're significantly harder to mislead:
Younger consumers increasingly prioritize values over deals:
Survey Data: A 2024 survey found that 43% of consumers aged 18-34 view Black Friday negatively, associating it with "corporate greed" and "wasteful consumption." Only 19% of Baby Boomers share this view. This generational divide suggests Black Friday's cultural relevance will continue declining as younger consumers become the dominant spending demographic.
Black Friday faces competition from alternatives that offer equal or superior value without the downsides.
Amazon's Prime Day (mid-July) has become a legitimate Black Friday competitor:
Many consumers now skip Black Friday entirely and wait for Cyber Monday (or "Cyber Week"):
Savvy consumers have learned that patience and tools beat Black Friday:
If Black Friday is losing relevance for consumers, why do retailers continue investing billions in it? The answer reveals the event's true purpose.
Black Friday isn't primarily about profit margins—it's about accelerating revenue:
No major retailer can afford to sit out Black Friday when competitors participate:
"If we don't do Black Friday, our customers will shop our competitors. We can't unilaterally exit. It's a prisoner's dilemma—everyone would be better off if no one did it, but individual incentives force participation."
— Anonymous retail executive interview, 2024
Black Friday generates enormous free media coverage and social media engagement:
Even if individual deals aren't particularly profitable, the brand exposure has value that extends beyond the holiday season.
As Black Friday's relevance wanes, what emerges to replace it?
Rather than one-time Black Friday purchases, retailers are pushing subscriptions:
These models spread revenue across 12 months rather than concentrating it in November, providing retailers with predictable income and consumers with ongoing value.
Technology enables individualized pricing based on browsing history, location, and purchasing power:
This personalization makes every shopping experience potentially a "Black Friday" for that individual—further diluting the actual event's significance.
Forward-thinking retailers are pivoting from transactional Black Friday to experiential shopping:
For the strategic shopper, Black Friday still holds some value, but it requires careful navigation:
Black Friday IS Still Worth It If:
Black Friday ISN'T Worth It If:
Black Friday persists not because it serves consumers better than alternatives, but because it serves retailers' short-term cash flow needs and because consumers haven't collectively realized how much it's changed.
The Black Friday of 2025 is a fundamentally different phenomenon than the Black Friday of 2005:
Yet retailers spend billions marketing Black Friday, media provides extensive coverage, and millions of Americans still participate. Why? Partly habit, partly tradition, partly FOMO, and partly because some deals are genuinely good if you know how to find them.
The truth is that Black Friday is transitioning from a shopping event into a cultural ritual—something we do because it's "the thing to do," not because it represents extraordinary value. Like many rituals, it persists long after its practical purpose has faded.
For consumers willing to do their homework—tracking prices, using browser extensions, checking history, and staying disciplined—Black Friday can still offer value. But for the casual shopper assuming Black Friday automatically means great deals, the event is increasingly irrelevant compared to year-round strategic shopping.
The question isn't whether Black Friday will disappear—it's already too entrenched for that. The question is whether it will become meaningful again, or whether it will continue its slow fade into a month-long marketing campaign that most savvy consumers tune out.
Based on current trends, bet on the latter.